Progress Or Stagnation?

I’ve acknowledged on multiple occasions that I can be a harsh critic. However, when assessing the Perth Glory’s season, I believe my concerns — and at times, frustrations — are well-founded. The expectations heading into this campaign were high, yet the reality has been far from inspiring.

Take head coach David Zdrilic, for example — a figure at the centre of much debate, including my own ongoing internal conflict. Across various articles and discussions, I’ve found myself torn between different perspectives. Rather than subscribing to a simplistic “Zdrilic in” or “Zdrilic out” stance, there’s probably a need for a more nuanced evaluation. Leading a football club, particularly one in transition, is no straightforward task, and reducing his tenure to a binary judgment would fail to capture the full complexity of the situation.

When Zdrilic was appointed last July, there was a clear expectation that his arrival would usher in a distinctive style of play, one that was actively marketed to the club’s members and supporters. While there have been glimpses of promise, inconsistency has defined the season. Now, as we cross the mid-point of the campaign, the crucial question remains: has Zdrilic’s appointment propelled Perth Glory toward meaningful progress, or has the club merely stagnated under his leadership?

To begin, let’s take a statistical comparison between Perth Glory’s performance up to this point in the current season versus the exact same stage last season. Surprisingly, around this time last year under former head coach Alen Stajcic, things were trending upward. The Glory were in the middle of a strong run of form — a true “purple patch” (pun intended). After 17 games, they had amassed 19 points, with 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Notably, their attacking output was prolific, scoring 37 goals while conceding 42. Almost every game turned into a high-scoring affair, thrilling and frustrating fans in equal measure.

Fast forward to the present, and the contrast is stark. After 17 rounds under David Zdrilic, the Glory sit on just 10 points, with 2 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses. They’ve managed only 12 goals while conceding 40 — an alarming drop-off in offensive productivity without a corresponding improvement in defensive solidity. Simply put, it’s been a tough watch.

One of the biggest issues, in my view, has been the inability to capitalise on “winnable” games — something that became especially glaring following the recent bye. It’s fair to say that in the games against Auckland and the Western Sydney Wanderers, there were legitimate signs of progress, particularly in terms of style of play. Notably, there was a clear collective effort from the players, which at times contributed to an effective press and at times, efficient transition play.

Given that momentum, it would have been reasonable to expect the following three fixtures — against the Newcastle Jets (away), Melbourne Victory (home), and Central Coast Mariners (home) — to be winnable games, considering those teams’ inconsistencies and the perceived forward strides the Glory had made.

Yet, the return from those three matches was a mere 2 points from a possible 9. For me, these were huge missed opportunities — none more so than the Melbourne Victory game. In front of a rare bumper crowd at HBF Park, the Glory came out flying after halftime, playing arguably their best football of the season. Roared on by a feverish home crowd, they pinned Victory back, created numerous chances, and looked poised to take control of the contest.

But instead of capitalising, a familiar Achilles’ heel resurfaced. Two goals conceded in quick succession undid all their hard work, and they ultimately fell to a 2–0 defeat. On 9 occasions this season, as pointed out by Ben Smith from The West Australian, the Glory have conceded 2 goals in a 6 minute period – for me, this is completely unacceptable as it has cost us numerous points.

That result was made even more frustrating by what followed — the Newcastle Jets, a side struggling for consistency, comfortably dismantled the Victory 3–0 at home the very next week. While it’s true that Melbourne Victory’s record at McDonald Jones Stadium isn’t great, the fact remains: this was a winnable game that the Glory let slip through their fingers.

Even recently against the Central Coast Mariners — one of the rare occasions this season where the Glory generated a higher expected goals (xG) value than their opponent — the team still failed to secure a win, settling for a 1–1 draw. This result epitomises a recurring issue: despite a recent improvement in chance creation, they struggle to translate them into tangible success.

On the topic of xG, FotMob provides an xG-based league table that allows users to compare teams’ performances based purely on expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA). This model offers an insight into how teams should theoretically be performing relative to their chances created and conceded.

As the table illustrates, Perth Glory’s underlying numbers make for grim reading. Their xG deficit (-2.0), xGA excess (+5.7), and xPTS (Expected Points) shortfall (-2) all indicate significant underperformance. When compared to sides like Brisbane Roar and Newcastle Jets, who occupy similar positions on the table, it becomes evident that the Glory’s actual output has been well below par.

While there is debate over the reliability of xPTS as a metric, the broader xG data suggests that the Perth Glory have neither consistently created enough scoring opportunities nor prevented their opponents from generating dangerous chances.

A key factor contributing to the high xGA could be the mixed success of the Glory’s high press — a central component of David Zdrilic’s tactical philosophy. There have been moments where the press has functioned effectively, disrupting opposition build-up play, but equally, there have been games where it has been systematically bypassed, leaving the team exposed.

One telling statistic is the Glory’s average of just 4 final-third ball recoveries per 90 minutes — ranking them equal 9th out of 13 teams this season. Given the emphasis placed on winning possession in advanced areas, this return is underwhelming. More concerning is the fact that it represents a decline from last season’s average of 4.7, suggesting regression rather than progress in this aspect of their game.

While the numbers paint a largely underwhelming picture, is there evidence of progress under Zdrilic that deserves recognition? One could argue that there has been a degree of defensive stabilisation — particularly in preventing opponents from running riot at HBF Park, where in the beginning of the season, multiple teams frequently scored three or more goals.

Since the turn of the year, barring the heavy defeat to Sydney FC, most of the Glory’s matches have remained competitive, which, albeit a small step, represents some improvement.

Additionally, the significant player turnover during the season has undoubtedly complicated the process of embedding a tactical model with inherent complexities. Implementing a high-pressing system, for instance, requires cohesion and familiarity, both of which take time to develop — especially with a squad that has undergone major changes. While the results have yet to reflect substantial progress, there is an argument to be made that Zdrilic’s tactical vision is still in its formative stages, hindered by these transitional challenges.

To conclude, the most pressing need for David Zdrilic is to establish a level of consistency — both in performance and results. With the squad now settled, and following a run of missed opportunities over the last three games, it is crucial that the team finishes the season with a clear sense of direction and tangible improvement.

I must admit however that at this point in time, I remain unconvinced by what I have seen so far. The statistical trends, combined with the inconsistency in performances and underwhelming results, suggest that the pressure should be firmly on Zdrilic to deliver. However, should he manage to turn things around and produce meaningful results, he might just convince me — and a fair few others — to get back on board.