Nagelsmann to United: A Mark Of The Ineos Revolution?
Manchester United’s recent announcement of Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his chemical company INEOS completing a £1.25 billion partial takeover of the club on Christmas Eve marked the beginning of a new era for the historic football club. With this significant change in ownership, fans have been anticipating a fresh start and renewed hope for the club’s future.
Following the takeover, Sir Jim wasted no time in implementing changes within the club’s leadership. Richard Arnold stepped down as CEO, and Omar Berada, formerly of Manchester City, assumed the role. Rumours have circulated about the potential arrival of Dan Ashworth, the former Newcastle United sporting director, signalling a shift away from the Glazer ownership’s tumultuous reign.
One pivotal decision looming on the horizon is the future of the current manager, Erik ten Hag.
When Erik ten Hag was appointed, he emerged as the clear fan favourite.
In a Twitter poll conducted by Manchester United legend Gary Neville in March 2022, fans overwhelmingly chose ten Hag over Mauricio Pochettino, the current manager of Chelsea. The final vote tally stood at 82% in favour of ten Hag, with over 200,000 votes cast.
Ten Hag inherited a club in disarray, with the 2021/22 season marking a low point in Manchester United’s Premier League history, with dismal results, coaching changes, and a growing chasm between them and their successful city rivals, Manchester City. It’s fair to say that Erik ten Hag faced an immense trial by fire.
Fresh off winning the Eredivisie with Ajax, he was walking in to what would be the biggest challenge of his career.
In his first season, he navigated some very delicate challenges admirably. Managing the respective situations of Cristiano Ronaldo and Jadon Sancho showcased his adept decision-making, preventing potential conflicts from derailing the team.
Furthermore, ten Hag and his players orchestrated a remarkable turnaround from a disastrous start to the season, including losses to Brighton and Brentford, the latter a humiliating 4–0 defeat away from home.
As the 2023/24 season approached, optimism abounded for Manchester United. A third-place finish secured Champions League football, and the club lifted the Carabao Cup, their first piece of silverware since 2017.
However, the 2023/24 season has been marred by setbacks and underwhelming performances. United’s early exits from the Carabao Cup and Champions League, coupled with their poor domestic form, have cast doubt on ten Hag’s ability to lead the team going forward into this new era.
Currently, they sit 19 points adrift of league leaders Liverpool and 11 behind Aston Villa in 4th place.
At the time of writing this article, United have lost 11 games in the Premier League this season. Compare that to former manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær, who lost 14 games in the league over his whole tenure as the boss in charge at Old Trafford.
When dissecting this debacle, many fans have taken the time to try to identify the root causes of United’s disastrous season.
Injuries have undoubtedly played a role. The absence of key players at varying points in the season such as Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Mason Mount, and more recently, Rasmus Højlund, has severely disrupted the team’s rhythm and synergy.
Additionally, the ownership saga leading into and during the season may have served as a distraction for the players, diverting their focus from on-field performance.
However, much of the blame this season has been directed at the man who was unanimously praised by fans last season: Erik ten Hag.
When Erik ten Hag was appointed, most Manchester United fans looked toward his tenure at the club with a sense of optimism, anticipating that he would bring his brand of football from his time at Ajax to Old Trafford.
This style of play, characterised by fluid passing movements, seamless transitions, and a relentless defensive attitude, had been synonymous with success, particularly in the Champions League for ten Hag’s former side.
It was what fans at Old Trafford envisioned for their team week in and week out.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the start of last season saw the team attempting to adopt this style, only to falter. Following the demoralizing defeat to Brentford, ten Hag seemed to abandon his possession-oriented approach in favour of a more direct and transition-focused style of play, with a heavy reliance on duels won — a method reminiscent of former United manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
While this shift yielded some success in the 2022/23 season, fans were undoubtedly expecting an evolution in the team’s style for this season. The signing of André Onana, intended to replace long-time goalkeeper David de Gea, was seen as a step toward resurrecting that Ajax style.
Unfortunately, this season has seen anything but a return to that renowned style. What compounded fans’ concerns was ten Hag admitting during an interview late last year that this United side will “never” play the slick brand of football his Ajax side gained widespread praise for.
Instead what we’re seeing now is a Manchester United side, from a broad perspective, that have become predictable and easy to play against. A significant factor contributing to this is the team’s lack of structure, both in and out of possession, with spacing between the lines posing a significant problem.
Finding the right balance in player spacing, especially in possession, is crucial for breaking down an opponent’s defensive block. Players can’t be too close or far apart; there must be a harmonious balance. However, the current positioning of Manchester United’s players has left much to be desired, resulting in very shaky ball security.
Take, for example, Manchester United’s 2–2 draw at home against Tottenham this year.
While the Spurs players demonstrate a well-balanced occupation of both wide and central areas, there is an alarming gap, particularly in the midfield region between Kobbie Mainoo and the attacking line.
This imbalance not only hinders ball progression and retention but also leaves United vulnerable defensively.
The lack of structure in rest defence, as observed by former Liverpool defender and current Sky Sports presenter Jamie Carragher, exposes United to counterattacks and transitions.
In the Fulham game in particular, Marco Silva’s team exploited this vulnerability, repeatedly bypassing United’s defence with speed and ease.
Numerous Manchester United fans have voiced their frustration with Erik ten Hag for his failure to address this issue, with analyst Jack Fawcett among them.
Fawcett remarked that the team’s structure “makes zero sense from Erik ten Hag.” Speaking on the above image from the Fulham game, he argued that for a team like Manchester United, which frequently surrenders possession, it’s unacceptable to leave the deepest area of the pitch vulnerable in a 3v3 situation.
He criticized the lack of central zones occupied, which makes it difficult to counter-press and funnel counter-attacks wide. Fawcett concluded that the players are forced to cover long distances after turnovers, describing the tactical approach as poor and chaotic.
The necessity for players to repeatedly sprint up and down the pitch at high speed undoubtedly takes a toll on their physical wellbeing. Many have observed that Manchester United on several occasions under ten Hag, have appeared fatigued and depleted, resulting in numerous injuries and disappointing performances.
Ten Hag arrived at the club with a clear emphasis on control, a hallmark of his philosophy. In a recent interview, he highlighted this aspect while discussing some of the players he had signed.
“My style of play? I think it’s clear. I always want to play from the back, that’s why we signed Onana, Martinez, and Casemiro. I want to dictate the game with a high block.”
However, the reality has often diverged from ten Hag’s vision. Playing out from the back and implementing a high block with the players mentioned has proven challenging for United this season.
Jack Fawcett echoed these concerns, expressing doubts about how well the players mentioned by ten Hag align with the coach’s philosophy in that statement alone. He questioned Casemiro’s ability to receive with his back to goal and dictate play, Martinez’s effectiveness in defending far from his goal, and Onana’s proficiency as an elite sweeper behind a high block.
These observations, voiced not only by Fawcett but also echoed by other United fans, raise pertinent questions about the compatibility of ten Hag’s philosophy with the players at his disposal and the suitability of his long-term tenure at United, particularly with Ineos seeking to essentially renovate the football department.
In my opinion, any decision to change the manager should be deferred until the end of the season. Nevertheless, it appears that ten Hag may not currently enjoy unanimous support from the club, particularly given the absence of a definitive statement from Ineos.
In the recent 3–1 loss to Manchester City, United were completely dominated in essentially every major statistic.
▪ xG: 2.81–0.14
▪ xThreat: 2.63–0.55
▪ Possession: 73.9% — 26.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 90.6% — 9.4%
▪ Def Action Height: 61.9–33.9
The final numbers showed that Manchester City were in control of the game for 98.3% of it. This certainly has not done Erik ten Hag’s case case any favours.
This situation prompts consideration: if ten Hag is to depart at season’s end, who would emerge as the most suitable candidate to not only succeed him but also herald the beginning of the Ineos/Sir Jim Ratcliffe era?
Numerous names have surfaced in recent weeks as potential candidates to take over at Manchester United. Among them are Zinedine Zidane, Roberto De Zerbi, Simone Inzaghi, Rúben Amorim, Graham Potter, and Hansi Flick. While each name carries its own merits, there are a few standouts for consideration.
Zidane’s track record at Real Madrid speaks for itself, although his reluctance to manage in the UK and the likely need for mass squad changes may pose a challenge. De Zerbi has showcased promise, particularly during his tenure at Sassuolo and more recently with Brighton, hinting at an exciting future with improved personnel.
Simone Inzaghi’s recent success with Inter Milan in both Serie A and the Champions League highlights his managerial prowess, while Rúben Amorim has emerged as an intriguing prospect, demonstrating innovation and achieving notable success with Sporting CP in Portugal.
Graham Potter’s name has been in the mix for some time, but so far he’s failed to capture the imagination of United fans. As for Hansi Flick, despite a successful stint with Bayern Munich, there are doubts about his suitability for the role.
However, a recent name that has garnered attention is Julian Nagelsmann. Allegedly recommended to the club by former interim manager Ralf Rangnick, Nagelsmann stands out as a young manager with immense potential to become not only a top-class coach in the future, but possibly the one to bring the Glory days back to Old Trafford.
In my view, Nagelsmann embodies the evolution of football — a coach who adeptly interprets the modern, innovative cues and trends that shape the game. His coaching philosophy reflects this understanding of the modern game.
In essence, Julian Nagelsmann is a product of the Ralf Rangnick school of coaching, where intense pressing (or Gegenpressing) and a dynamic, high-energy style of play are central tenets. He demonstrates a keen grasp of quite a few fundamental principles including his possession play, counterpressing, and notably, rest-defence — an area under heavy scrutiny at United this season.
Nagelsmann also subscribes to the principle of ‘minimum/relative width’, wherein the team, when in possession, adopts a narrow shape. This approach aims to minimize running distances and create overloads in the penalty box, enhancing attacking opportunities.
Another notable aspect of Nagelsmann’s coaching style is his commitment to innovation and the pursuit of new ideas. He often draws inspiration from other sports, such as the NFL or the NBA, in his journey to evolve as a coach and refine his methodologies.
To encapsulate Nagelsmann’s teams, it’s fair to describe them as a fusion of principles seen in various successful teams, such as Manchester City or Liverpool. His sides excel in possession-based play, characterized by a high level of intensity, speed, directness, and meticulously crafted transition scenarios.
While I’ve highlighted several positive aspects of Nagelsmann’s tactical acumen, it’s crucial to acknowledge that his recent tenure at a prestigious club like United in Bayern Munich didn’t conclude favourably. Why?
Firstly, his dismissal came as a surprise, given that Bayern’s performance was relatively solid at the time, and there seemed to be no pressing need for a change. In essence, three key factors have been cited as contributing to his sacking: cultural clashes, underwhelming sporting performance, and a fear of missing out (FOMO).
From a political and cultural standpoint, Nagelsmann’s unconventional behaviour, including taking a holiday after a crucial loss and his personal relationships, clashed with the conservative ethos of Bayern’s leadership. Performance-wise, concerns arose over Bayern’s declining domestic form, tactical shortcomings, and poor record in close games. Finally, the desire to secure Thomas Tuchel, a long-standing target, also influenced the decision, as Bayern sought to act swiftly amid Tuchel’s potential availability.
Considering all factors, I believe it’s a plausible theory to suggest that Julian Nagelsmann could be a suitable candidate for Manchester United under the new project led by Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Ineos.
Nagelsmann possesses an impressive tactical acumen and a drive to continually improve and innovate, which could prove beneficial for the club. Furthermore, his emphasis on player relationships, acknowledging that coaching is “thirty percent tactics, seventy percent social competence,” aligns with the holistic approach needed to lead a team like United.
Whether working with the current squad or potentially bringing in new talent, United requires a coach capable of stimulating players to consistently perform at the levels achieved by top clubs like Manchester City and Liverpool.
In my mind, Nagelsmann appears to be seeking a challenge as I doubt coaching the German national team is his long-term goal, and United could provide him with the platform to showcase his abilities.
While there are no guarantees of success should Nagelsmann assume the role, it’s evident that Erik ten Hag, the current manager, doesn’t clearly and unequivocally have full support from the new partial owners and a significant portion of the fanbase. Thus, a change in management could be beneficial for United as they embark on a new era.
Ultimately, the decision lies with Sir Jim Ratcliffe and his team, but considering the trajectory of the club, bringing in a coach like Julian Nagelsmann could be a step towards restoring United to their former glory.
