Erik ten Hag: The Chosen One
Eric ten Hag is without a doubt one of the outstanding candidates to become Manchester United’s next permanent manager.
At this moment, it’s looking almost certain that he will be the next Manchester United manager.
Ten Hag has gained a very handy reputation in Europe, mostly due to his Ajax side’s style of play, their success and how he develops players, in particular academy products.
Brief Overview
When looking at ten Hag’s style of play, it can be briefly summarised as a vertical tiki-taka, where his sides dominate possession, where they look to create gaps and then look to exploit the space via play in between the lines or via a switch.
Dominating possession is a distinguishable feature seen with his Ajax side, as this season they average 67.2% possession in the Eredivisie.
Going forward, Ajax are very good, because in 23 games in the Eredivisie the Dutch giants have scored 70 goals, which is an average of 3.04 goals per game. This number is similar in the Champions League, as they averaged 3.33 goals per game in the Group Stage, which consisted of big clubs including Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon.
Now, one would think that a side that is so offensively oriented, would leave themselves exposed at the back. This has not been the case, particularly this season and this is one of the many elements that ten Hag has adapted from his time at Bayern Munich under Pep Guardiola, the high and aggressive press.
The Dutch side use a man-oriented press which is often geared towards the movement of the ball rather than the opposition players’ movement, however, both are of high importance. This means that they often swarm the player in possession, particularly when the ball is close to the touchline.
This has led them to conceding only five goals in both the Eredivisie and in the Champions League group stages.
I mentioned previously about his Ajax side being successful, this has definitely been the case domestically, as they’ve won the Championship twice (2018/19, 2020/21), the KNVB Cup also twice (2018/19, 2020/21), as well as the Johan Cruyff Shield in 2019.
In Europe, the 2018/19 season was incredible, as the young players really took centre stage in every Ajax game, with players like Frenkie de Jong, Donny van de Beek and Matthijs de Ligt standing out. They were unfortunate to not make the Champions League final that season, as they were only 5 seconds away in that Semi-Final clash against Tottenham, as a result of a Lucas Moura winner.
This season, Ajax look again to be the dark horse of this competition. I’ve watched their games here and there, but I paid particular attention to their 4–0 demolishing of Borussia Dortmund at home in matchweek 3. Their ability to keep possession, create chances and basically destroy Dortmund was very impressive.
Ten Hag at United
Manchester United need a fresh approach in terms of management. This has been a reason as to why people have opted with ten Hag over someone like Mauricio Pochettino, as we’ve seen how the Argentine has operated in the Premier League during his stints with Southampton and Tottenham.
Erik ten Hag is a risk but it could pay dividends for United.
Ten Hag would ultimately be going into the club with a clear idea of how he wants his side to play, an element that needs to be seen with these United players. During Solskjær’s final season and in aspects of this season under Rangnick, there’s certainly been intent from the players however there seems to be a lack of direction.
When analysing Ajax’s sides under ten Hag, the players were aware of the movements to make, the patterns of play to execute and what is expected of them in each phase of the game.
Now, when looking at how ten Hag could set up Manchester United, it’s an interesting conundrum to try and predict. His sides tend to set up in a 4–2–3–1 or 4–3–3 system, however, that is only really present on paper and in the defensive phase, as in possession his sides set up in very unusual yet successful shapes such as a 4–1–4–1, a 3–3–1–3 or even a lopsided 3–4–3 diamond.
Now for me, the 3–4–3 diamond probably won’t be the option he would go for, given how complex that system is.
I feel the 3–3–1–3 system would probably allow United to control games very effectively.
Structurally how that works is first seen with the 4–2–3–1 and the key players in question are the double pivot. One of the pivots would drop either in between or on the side of the centrebacks, while the other takes a central position in front of the back three, as the fullbacks hold the width.
Here’s how it panned out with Ajax in the 2018/19 season.
Now the reason why ten Hag deployed this shape was to create diamonds, with the image above displaying a diamond between the back 3 and the lone CDM. With the 3–3–1–3, there are three diamonds so this makes ball retention much easier.
So, for Manchester United and how that could work, it’s important to understand the roles within that shape. I’ll explain the potential lineup along with the characteristics of each position.
The goalkeeper will be David de Gea. Now, Dean Henderson probably is better with his feet however de Gea has established himself as United’s number one so it is unlikely ten Hag would make a call that big within his first year. I can however see him looking to sign a younger goalkeeper within the next year or so.
In terms of the centrebacks, Raphaël Varane will be the first name on the teamsheet in that area. Ten Hag clearly likes his centrebacks to be comfortable on the ball, and Varane has been exceptional, not just in that area but overall, his class has been very important for United this season. The team hasn’t conceded more than 1 goal every time he’s played.
When looking at a partner for Varane, it could be Harry Maguire. But, he’s become not just a liability in terms of defensive mistakes, but on the ball as well, he’s not been as good this season in particular as he has been historically.
For me, I think ten Hag may go for Pau Torres. Now, I understand he may not be everyone’s cup of tea however he does tick quite a few boxes ten Hag likes to see within his centrebacks.
On the ball is where his best qualities lie, with his progressive passes and carries both ranking in the 89% percentile of defenders in Europe’s top 5 leagues. On average per 90 minutes, Torres makes 4.2 progressive passes per game and 4.84 progressive carries per game.
Speed is another quality Torres possess, as in the Euros last year, he recorded a top speed of 28.1 km/h. Varane as a comparison recorded a top speed of 28.8 km/h in that competition, so this would give United a sense of reassurance to a degree in defensive transition.
In terms of how much he would cost, his contract expires in 2024, so Villarael may command a fee somewhere in the region of just over £50 million.
When looking at how that could work within United’s structure using that 3–3–1–3, Torres would probably slot on the left, where he could drive with the ball and make those passes in natural areas to him, while Varane would be more reserved and will probably occupy the spot in the middle.
This leaves us with the other player to fill that back three spot. During ten Hag’s 2018/19 season where this system was present, Frenkie de Jong fulfilled that role where he would act as a ‘Libero’.
For those who are unfamiliar with the role, what would be expected from de Jong would be for him to step out of the back three, dribbling/passing around his opponents in order to dictate the attack. I feel that Erik ten Hag may not necessarily go in for de Jong, albeit that is a possibility if he was to come to Old Trafford.
Ryan Gravenberch, the 19-year-old sensation at Ajax could be the one ten Hag would look to go for. Ball progression is key here, as that was an area Frenkie de Jong thrived in. With Gravenberch, he is strong in terms of progressive carries, as he makes 7.59 per game, which puts him in the 96% percentile of midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
A progressive carry is essentially a dribble that moves the ball towards the opponent’s goal at least 5 yards, or any carry into the penalty area. So obviously dribbling is key here and in relation to Gravenberch’s dribbling ability, that too is impressive, as he completes 1.67 dribbles per game, which places him in the 94% percentile of other midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
Now, this is a deal I feel ten Hag would really want United to complete, especially given the fact that the young midfielder’s contract expires in 2023 so the club would have some leverage in terms of not paying a ridiculously high fee for him.
I think United could get him for roughly £30 million, maybe even lower.
For the other midfielder in that double pivot, ten Hag would want a deep-lying playmaker. Rúben Neves could be an option for Erik ten Hag.
The Wolves midfielder is capable of playing either as a lone 6 or as the more defensive midfielder in a double pivot. When looking at what kind of CDM he is, he is someone who is not afraid to prompt attacks and also disciplined enough not to forget his defensive duties.
He is an excellent player with great vision, exceptional passing abilities, technical and mental skills. One of his outstanding attributes is his ability to shoot accurately from long distances, which has helped him score a number of goals so far in his career.
Defensively, he has pretty impressive statistics when compared to other midfielders in the Premier League. He’s had the 10th most tackles in this season, with the Portuguese international making 51 thus far. For interceptions, he’s ranked 14th with 24 interceptions made. With clearances, he’s ranked 10th also, with 33 made thus far.
A deal could be achieved for a fee as low as £40 million given his contract expiring in 2024.
With the two fullbacks alongside them, ten Hag could invert them however I feel he would deploy them almost as wingbacks, for them to provide the width and allow for the wingers to tuck in and become inside forwards.
For that reason, I feel he will opt with Alex Telles at left back and Diogo Dalot at right back. Those two particularly under interim manager, Ralf Rangnick were solid going forward and under ten Hag they could develop to be more efficient going forward as well.
Bruno Fernandes would operate as the number 10, where he would look to continue his playmaking role that he did under Ole Gunnar Solskjær and currently under Rangnick.
With the inside forwards, here will be an interesting proposition for ten Hag. At Ajax, he likes his wingers to cut inside, due to the angles that provides. So as a result, one would think Marcus Rashford would operate at left wing. I don’t think Rashford would do too well under ten Hag, to be honest. This is mostly the product of his poor decision making and lack of discipline.
Therefore, Jadon Sancho will occupy the left wing position as his ability on the ball will be an element ten Hag would favour more in my view than just speed and directness. On the right, I believe ten Hag would look to bring exciting winger Antony from Ajax with him.
The 20-year-old has been so impressive under the Dutchman this season, scoring 11 and assisting 8 times thus far in all competitions.
In terms of his playing style, the Brazilian is an inventive and intelligent player. His most notable attributes are his acceleration and speed, as well as his dribbling ability in 1v1 situations and his crossing ability from deeper positions.
At the moment, Transfermarkt values him at roughly £30 million however with his contract expiring in 2025, I feel that will be likely to be pushed to roughly £50 million, which would be a sound deal with all things considered.
With the striker, I feel it will be Cristiano Ronaldo for the short term. Ten Hag likes his strikers to be the focal point, this season it’s been seen with Sébastien Haller. Ronaldo has the ability to not just be a target man, but he can also link up the play and most importantly, he’s efficient in the box.
Ten Hag’s sides always create high numbers of chances each game, so it’s highly likely to suggest Ronaldo will profit, big time!
Here is the lineup on paper:
In possession, the shape would roughly transition to this:
Final Thoughts
I think basically every United fan would want Erik ten Hag to be the next Manchester United manager next season. He ticks the major boxes for me in terms of playing style, success and player development so there’s every reason he could be a success at Old Trafford.
However, no manager being a success is a guarantee. However, the club could do with taking a risk by getting a manager who has been successful in a small league and bringing them to United. I mean, we tried that in 1986 and that manager turned out to be one of the most successful in history, in Sir Alex Ferguson.
I hope the club goes for ten Hag and I feel it would be much easier for the club to get him than someone like Pochettino.
